Miscalculations In The Middle East
©2011 By David Talbot
April 19, 2011. Egypt just announced renewed relations with Iran, accepting Iran’s newly appointed ambassador to Egypt for the first time since Egypt recognized Israel in 1979. Then, a few moments later, the Egyptian government-in-transition announced an upcoming trip to Syria, Iran’s surrogate state, the first trip of the acting Prime Minister since the fall of the Mubarak regime.
Many, including this writer, have been warning that the “Democracy Movement” in Egypt was not toward a Western style government. These two events indicate the growing influence of Iran in an area that was supposed to be friendly to the West. This can only foretell big problems in the Middle East.
Two countries directly impacted by Iran’s warming relations with Egypt are Saudi Arabia and Israel. In Israel’s case, I see ever deteriorating relations with Egypt leading up to a complete breakdown of their treaty and a return to hostilities. With Iran supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon (through Syria) and Hamas via a renewed relationship with Egypt, what are Israel’s options? And, how much additional restraint can we expect from the Israeli government?
Saudi Arabia was embarrassed recently by Wikileaks when diplomatic cables revealed in 2010 that Sunni Arab leaders singled out Iran as the greatest threat to regional stability. The cables showed that Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia supported a military attack on Iran to stop their nuclear program.
However, Saudi leaders refuse to discuss the matter publicly. They fear upsetting their own citizens who would revolt on the thought of their country taking sides with the West (The principal customers for Saudi oil) against an Islamic nation.
While both Iran and Saudi Arabia are Islamic nations, Saudis are Sunni Arabs, and Iranians are Persians, the difference a source of conflict for centuries.
What does the miscalculation of the reality of Islamic Democracy mean for the Middle East? For the West? Only time will tell. Saudi Arabia are surrounded by potential enemies all united under the influence of Iran. Saudis have very little time to decide what course of action they will take, after their position on Iran’s nuclear program was disclosed.
If the Saudis make a deal with Israel, there will be a revolt much like Egypt. Israel will be almost totally isolated and will have to make a preemptive strike on Teheran. The U.S. oil supply will be in jeopardy.
If the Saudis make a deal with Iran, the Arabian Peninsula will be almost completely under Iranian influence. Israel will be almost totally isolated and will have to make a preemptive strike on Teheran. The U.S. oil supply will be in Jeopardy.
In my opinion the current situation in the Middle East is deteriorating quickly. I believe there will ultimately be a war in the Middle East. While we were busy backing the so-called Democracy Movements across the region, some to the detriment of long time U.S. allies, we failed to consider the most likely outcome of these regional issues, and what the impact will be on the U.S. economy and national security.
Anyway, that’s my opinion. What’s yours?
Shalom,
David Talbot
Contact me at: talbotnotes@gmail.com
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Sunday, October 07, 2007
Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran
Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler Wednesday, 19 September 2007
One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran- in a state of complete Amazement."
Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ˜Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ˜When will the Americans attack us?' ˜Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis? How massive will the attack be? on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."
And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria.
On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syrianear the city of Dayraz-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.
Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?
The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.
"Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria before being introduced into Russian operation service."
While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:
(No Map).
Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.
Nothing. El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.
Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked.
Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out for this means Iranis just as nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.
It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.
On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program.
All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that 600 Shihab-3 missiles will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."
A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.
Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.
But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.
So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).
Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.
A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.
But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the attack an incredible success.
Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.
One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran- in a state of complete Amazement."
Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ˜Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ˜When will the Americans attack us?' ˜Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis? How massive will the attack be? on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."
And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria.
On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syrianear the city of Dayraz-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.
Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?
The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.
"Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria before being introduced into Russian operation service."
While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:
(No Map).
Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th.
Nothing. El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.
Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked.
Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out for this means Iranis just as nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.
It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.
On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program.
All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that 600 Shihab-3 missiles will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."
A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.
Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.
But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.
So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).
Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.
A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.
But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the attack an incredible success.
Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Madame Traitor: An Arab-American's Perspective on Pelosi in Damascus
From: American Congress for Truth
Madame Traitor: An Arab-American's Perspective on Pelosi in Damascus
By Emilio Karim Dabul:
Nancy Pelosi is to world diplomacy what Michael Jordan was to baseball: completely forgettable and unnecessary. But unlike Michael's slightly amusing foray into the Babe's world, there's nothing funny about Pelosi in Damascus. The terrorists and their supporters, who are always looking for weak links and signs that the US does not have the will or backbone to win the war we're fighting with them, just found a great ally in Madame Speaker.
Among the older members of my extended Syrian family, there was a general attitude that kindness equaled weakness. It wasn't that they didn't believe in charity, but that it must be parceled out carefully, because those of ill intent can be quick to take advantage of those they perceive to be gullible and soft. This is what Nancy Pelosi either doesn't understand, or doesn't care about: she's being used by the very people who want to destroy us in another round of window dressing, subterfuge, and deceit. I suspect that Pelosi knows this, but is more intent on trying to undermine the President than in looking at how she could best support national security.
Let's look at the record. Syria has admitted that it has financially supported Hezbollah and Hamas, but says that it doesn't supply them with arms. What's the difference? What do you think these groups buy with the money? How many Israeli and Lebanese men, women and children have been slaughtered because of Syrian backing of these groups? And who do you think Syria supports across the border in Iraq: our troops or the terrorists some blithely refer to as "insurgents"? Without the direct involvement of Syria and Iran, the current terrorism movement in Iraq would have considerably less groundswell.
Pelosi might respond that she's aware of all that, but that she's simply taking James Baker's advice to talk with your enemies. Well, here's the problem: Baker's wrong. Talking to the Syrians has never accomplished anything. They correctly read the signs a long time ago that there would be no real consequences for continuing to support Arab and Islamic terrorist groups. And Pelosi has proven them right again: bend us and we will break.
This needs to stop. Syria and Iran need to know in a very real way that if they continue to support terrorism, they will experience the full wrath of the United States. And there cannot be any negotiating when it comes to this. Moammar Gadhafi -remember that boogeyman?-backed off when we bombed his palace in Libya. Gadhafi's two-year-old adopted daughter died in that raid, which was a terrible tragedy, particularly since he was the one with blood on his hands, not her. Still, Gadhafi crawled back into his hole, and retreated even further when we invaded Iraq, making a public show of acquiescence to the US. He may be crazy, but he's not stupid.
Syria and Iran need to be given fair warning to cease and desist all support of terrorist activities, prove they're doing so, and if they don't, be held to account.
Damascus and Tehran will continue to taunt and undermine us, and the UK, until they know they can't. Assad would be a lot less likely to cut checks for terrorists if he knew it could cost him his job or his life. And the same is true of the little guy in the leisure suit over in Iran. This is what they both understand and respect: force, not treaties and tea.
And Pelosi would probably be adverse to hang out with these guys if she knew F-18s might be approaching. Charging her with treason in the meantime would be appropriate. If the Speaker of the House during the Vietnam War had broken bread with Cambodian leaders, the public would have demanded his resignation and the most severe punishment possible for such a crime. And yet when Nancy Pelosi sits down with our enemies' collaborators, she's given a pass, even praised by those who cheer on any action that goes against the President. Al Jazerra is probably her biggest fan right now, next to the New York Times.
The problem is she's not just hurting the President, she's betraying our troops, and everyone around the world at risk to terrorist attacks, which is most of us.
We should not let her get away with it. We need to hold Pelosi responsible for her actions, as well as Syria and Iran. The three of them have more than proven their status as enemies of the United States.
***
Emilio Dabul is a Contributing Editor for American Congress for Truth.com. He is a Syrian-American of Muslim heritage and a Middle East commentator.
Friday, November 03, 2006
Iran buying 'whole villages' of converts in Syria; Assad gives 'carte blanche'
WASHINGTON — Iran is moving in on Syria to the point of encouraging Alawis and Sunnis to convert to Shi'ite Islam.
Syrian opposition sources said the regime of President Bashar Assad has given Iran "carte blanche" in Syria. Unlike his late father, Bashar has allowed Iranian clerics to spread the Shi'ite religion in Syria.
Syrian demonstrators carrying photos of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Reuters/Khaled al-Hariri
"Syrians have been observing over the last year a dangerous phenomena mostly witnessed by an alarming number of non-Shia turning to Khomeini-style Shia in return for financial rewards," the opposition Reform Party of Syria stated. "Whole villages and urban areas are adopting the Hizbullah model whereby clinics, schools and social services are provided by Iran in return for Syrians to convert to Shi'ism."
In August 2006, RPS stated, Iran opened two centers in the Syrian port of Latakia. The centers, which teach Farsi, have been converting Sunni Muslims.
"Assad is logically calculating that if Hizbullah, with its 15,000 fighters and a God-like following of its figurehead Sheik [Hassan] Nasrallah, can achieve with $100 million a year the military prowess it exhibited against Israel then why not turn all of Syria into a larger Hizbullah laboratory in the hope of attaining the same results?" the Syrian opposition party stated.
Sunnis comprise 70 percent of Syria. About 11 percent of the country consists of the ruling Alawite community, with the remainder Christians and Druze.
Opposition sources said the spread of Shia in Iran has angered many Sunnis, particularly those aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Sunni clerics envision a backlash against Iran and its representatives.
"Many [Sunni clerics] have voiced the following logic: We see the next confrontation in the Middle East along the lines of Israel vs. Iran and we have no choice but to stand by Israel to protect our religion," RPS stated.
"This logic emanates from the fact that no Sunni Arab country has the military competence to stand-up to the Iran-Syria-Hizbullah axis and also because Israel, unlike Iran, is not interested in converting Sunni Muslims," it said.
Syrian opposition sources said the regime of President Bashar Assad has given Iran "carte blanche" in Syria. Unlike his late father, Bashar has allowed Iranian clerics to spread the Shi'ite religion in Syria.
Syrian demonstrators carrying photos of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Reuters/Khaled al-Hariri
"Syrians have been observing over the last year a dangerous phenomena mostly witnessed by an alarming number of non-Shia turning to Khomeini-style Shia in return for financial rewards," the opposition Reform Party of Syria stated. "Whole villages and urban areas are adopting the Hizbullah model whereby clinics, schools and social services are provided by Iran in return for Syrians to convert to Shi'ism."
In August 2006, RPS stated, Iran opened two centers in the Syrian port of Latakia. The centers, which teach Farsi, have been converting Sunni Muslims.
"Assad is logically calculating that if Hizbullah, with its 15,000 fighters and a God-like following of its figurehead Sheik [Hassan] Nasrallah, can achieve with $100 million a year the military prowess it exhibited against Israel then why not turn all of Syria into a larger Hizbullah laboratory in the hope of attaining the same results?" the Syrian opposition party stated.
Sunnis comprise 70 percent of Syria. About 11 percent of the country consists of the ruling Alawite community, with the remainder Christians and Druze.
Opposition sources said the spread of Shia in Iran has angered many Sunnis, particularly those aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Sunni clerics envision a backlash against Iran and its representatives.
"Many [Sunni clerics] have voiced the following logic: We see the next confrontation in the Middle East along the lines of Israel vs. Iran and we have no choice but to stand by Israel to protect our religion," RPS stated.
"This logic emanates from the fact that no Sunni Arab country has the military competence to stand-up to the Iran-Syria-Hizbullah axis and also because Israel, unlike Iran, is not interested in converting Sunni Muslims," it said.
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